Since the chip crisis broke out in the fourth quarter of last year, the global auto industry’s “core shortage” has been lingering. Many car companies have tightened their production capacity and have overcome difficulties by reducing production or suspending production of some models.

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However, the virus mutation has caused repeated epidemics. To protect the safety of employees, many chip factories can only produce at low load or even stop production. Therefore, the shortage of chips has further intensified. The delivery time in July has been greatly extended from the usual 6-9 weeks to the current one. 26.5 weeks. At present, most auto companies’ chip inventories have bottomed out, and they can only drastically cut their September production plans. For example, Toyota’s September production plan was reduced from 900,000 to 500,000, a reduction of up to 40%.

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The domestic auto market has also been significantly affected. The recent helplessness of Bosch executives in China to apologize in Moments and the rumors of the suspension of many Audi models have once again pushed the “core shortage” situation of domestic car companies to the forefront. For the Chinese auto market, the “l(fā)ack of cores” not only affects the extension of the delivery time of models, but is also likely to bring about changes in the timing and model choices of consumers.

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Car chips are difficult to “move the ground”

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For car companies, it is very unwilling to cause a sharp decline in sales due to a shortage of certain parts, rather than the strength of the product itself, and the current situation of chip shortages that cannot be changed makes car companies even more depressed.

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With the increasing number of electronic control components in automobiles, the demand for the number of chips in a car has also increased sharply. At present, a passenger car is usually equipped with 1500-1700 chips of various specifications. Missing chips in important locations will prevent the vehicle from driving normally and safely.

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Many domestic netizens have asked why the domestic epidemic situation is controlled so well, why can’t chip production be placed in the country? In fact, this is difficult to achieve in a short time, and it is not a technical bottleneck. Automotive chips do not have high requirements on the manufacturing process, but due to the harsher working environment and higher requirements for service life, automotive chips require high stability and consistency.

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At present, there are also chip companies in China, but the pre-test and certification process of the chip by the OEM is very cumbersome and takes a long time. Under normal circumstances, after the initial selection of chip suppliers, car companies will not take the initiative to replace them. Therefore, it is difficult for car companies to introduce new chip suppliers in a short time.

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On the other hand, the chip production process involves multiple links, such as design, manufacturing, and packaging, so multiple companies have a division of labor and cooperation. The low-tech links such as packaging are mainly located in countries and regions with lower labor costs. It is also not realistic for chip companies to relocate and build factories just for the epidemic.

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At present, “there is no chip spot to scan” on the market, so facing the problem of chip shortage, all the industry can do is wait. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said: “There is no need to be too nervous in the face of chip shortages. I believe that the market supply will improve significantly in the fourth quarter.”

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However, automotive chips have fully recovered to the previous supply level, which is expected to be next year. Car companies suffering from pain will also start to “hoard” chips, which will aggravate the duration of the chip market in short supply.

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Consumers “holding money” and other opportunities

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According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, since March of this year, domestic passenger car sales have declined for four consecutive months, and “core shortage” is one of the important reasons for this. Judging from the sales data of specific car companies, joint-venture car companies are more affected than Chinese car companies, and imported models are more affected than domestic models.

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The industry predicts that the shortage of chips will limit the production of nearly 900,000 vehicles in China in August. Many auto companies have a serious backlog of orders for a variety of hot-selling models, and some auto dealers even sold the show cars. How to appease customers for waiting for a long time and solve the backlog of orders as soon as possible is a headache for many car companies today.

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At the same time, the interlocking automobile industry chain has caused a series of butterfly effects in the industry due to the “lack of core”. At present, the discount rate of many models has “shrunk”, and the discount amount of some models has been reduced by 10,000 yuan compared with the beginning of the year. At the same time, the pick-up cycle has become longer, even as long as several months. Therefore, consumers who are not in a hurry to buy a car have postponed their car purchase plan, which has also exacerbated the even more sluggish situation during the off-season.

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According to data from the Federation of Travel Services, in the past two weeks in August, the retail sales of major manufacturers on the first and second Sundays were -6.9% and -31.2% respectively year-on-year, and the cumulative decline was 20.3% year-on-year. It is preliminarily estimated that the narrow passenger vehicle retail market this month will be around 1.550 million units, slightly better than the data in July. Due to the prolonged delivery cycle of new cars, it has also driven the recent surge in transaction volume in the domestic second-hand car market. And for the upcoming peak sales season “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, it is very likely that the lack of adequate supply of new cars will lose its momentum in the past.

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Due to the large differences in the degree of “core shortage” among car companies, car companies with large inventories are also seizing the opportunity to seize market share. In the past few months, the market share of Chinese brands and electric vehicles has increased significantly, partly because the supply of chips is more secure.

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At the same time, some car companies with weaker brand appeal can also use this opportunity to attract the attention and action of consumers who have recent car purchase needs with faster delivery of new cars and greater discounts.